Smart Dubai and the Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences (MBRU) have developed a novel epidemiological model to predict the spread of COVID-19.
The newly developed model is a specialised compartmental version of the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, which is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods.
The SEIR model is considered to be generic and does not work the best with COVID-19 due to the series of mutations, and the SEAHIR model was created to test the COVID-19 outbreak and lead to better results.
The work was published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health in a special issue called 'Infectious Disease Modeling in the Era of Complex Data' in March 2021.
Through the model, healthcare requirements can be assessed ahead of time through a detailed framework.
His Excellency Younus Al Nasser, Assistant Director General of Smart Dubai and CEO of the Dubai Data Establishment, along with Dr Alexandros Leontitsis and Dr Aamena Alshamsi from Smart Dubai and Professor Alawi Alsheikh-Ali, Professor Abiola Senok, and Dr Tom Loney from the College of Medicine at the Mohammed bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences developed the paper.
Dr. Amer Sharif, Vice-Chancellor of MBRU, and Head of the Dubai COVID-19 Command and Control Center said, “Collaboration and sharing of knowledge, is key to ending the global pandemic. MBRU is committed to leading the way and it is a matter of immense pride that our university has made a notable contribution in shaping Dubai’s response to the pandemic, one that is governed by science and driven by data.”
The study on SEAHIR is available on the website.